Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
10/10/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Orebro SK49%
×Draw26%
Dalkurd FF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.52
Dalkurd FF
1.02

Orebro SK creates 49% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 49 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.36
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.07
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
75%
Orebro SK or Dalkurd FF
74%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
51%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
25%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
78%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
45%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
20%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
64%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
27%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
66%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orebro SK scores more
49%
level
26%
Dalkurd FF scores more
25%

Orebro SK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orebro SK 1–3 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Orebro SK 3-1 in Superettan on October 10, 2022.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.