Dalkurd FF 0–2 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Orebro SK

N. Milleskog 14'

K. Walker 5'

7/16/2022

Superettan · Round 14Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF46%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.27

Dalkurd FF

1.66

Orebro SK

1.27

Dalkurd FF creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

1.52

creates per match

1.09

1.44

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.52

Orebro SK

1.09

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

1.44

Orebro SK

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

71%

Dalkurd FF or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

54%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

24%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

81%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

49%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

23%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

72%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

36%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

61%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

46%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

29%

Dalkurd FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-3'

Stefan Wolf

5'

K. Walker

14'

N. Milleskog

46'

B. Hjertstrand← A. Andrésson

52'

Frank Arhin

58'

N. Bergmark← D. Gustavsson

63'

Ahmed Awad← Suleman Zurmati

63'

B. Rahmani← F. Arhin

63'

A. Katsantonis← F. Dixon

70'

Alex Simovski

80'

E. Montagna← S. Wolf

82'

Rassa Rahmani

89'

Fábio← S. Dahl

89'

E. Barsoum← Ahmed Yasin

90+2'

Victor Mpindi

90+2'

P. Abdulla← A. Kabashi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DalkurdOrebro

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots9

6Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target5

7Off Target1

6Blocked3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0