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Dalkurd FF vs Orebro SK — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
10/20/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 26Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF37%
×Draw24%
Orebro SK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.48
Orebro SK
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
Orebro SK
0.95

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
Orebro SK
1.75

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
62%
Dalkurd FF or Orebro SK
76%
Draw or Orebro SK
63%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
18%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
77%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
43%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
19%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
78%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
44%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
49%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Orebro SK attack 0.95 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
37%
level
24%
Orebro SK scores more
38%

Orebro SK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Dalkurd FF 1–0 Orebro SK

Dalkurd FF beat Orebro SK 1-0 in Allsvenskan on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.