Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oppsal vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 25Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal64%
×Draw18%
Åssiden IF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
2.54
Åssiden IF
1.27

Oppsal creates 100% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oppsal
2.23
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Oppsal
1.08
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
82%
Oppsal or Åssiden IF
82%
Draw or Åssiden IF
36%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
43%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
92%
Oppsal 2+ goals
72%
Oppsal 3+ goals
46%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
72%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
36%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
78%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 2.23 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.54

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Oppsal defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oppsal scores more
64%
level
18%
Åssiden IF scores more
18%

Oppsal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oppsal vs Åssiden IF

Oppsal and Åssiden IF drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Trasop kunstgress in Oslo.