Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oppsal vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
CANC
14:00
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
9/12/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Oppsal72%
×Draw16%
Åssiden IF13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
2.75
Åssiden IF
1.08

Oppsal creates 155% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oppsal
1.67
Åssiden IF
1.17

allows per match

Oppsal
1.00
Åssiden IF
3.83

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
87%
Oppsal or Åssiden IF
84%
Draw or Åssiden IF
28%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
51%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
93%
Oppsal 2+ goals
75%
Oppsal 3+ goals
51%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
66%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
29%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
85%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.67 + Åssiden IF defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Åssiden IF attack 1.17 + Oppsal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Oppsal scores more
72%
level
16%
Åssiden IF scores more
13%

Oppsal at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oppsal face Åssiden IF (3. Division - Girone 2)

3. Division - Girone 2 returns with Oppsal hosting Åssiden IF. Match starts September 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.