Åssiden IF 0–5 Oppsal: Result & Stats

Åssiden IF

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Oppsal

6/15/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 11Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF40%

×Draw20%

Oppsal40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åssiden IFExpected goals in this matchOppsal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.08

Åssiden IF

2.09

Oppsal

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.96

creates per match

1.62

2.54

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Åssiden IF

1.96

Oppsal

1.62

allows per match

Åssiden IF

2.54

Oppsal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Oppsal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Oppsal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw

60%

Åssiden IF or Oppsal

80%

Draw or Oppsal

60%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

22%

Oppsal wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

88%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

62%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

34%

Oppsal 1+ goals

87%

Oppsal 2+ goals

61%

Oppsal 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

50%

Oppsal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Oppsal away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Oppsal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.09

Oppsal attack 1.62 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Åssiden IF scores more

40%

level

20%

Oppsal scores more

40%

Åssiden IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff