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Oostende vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
Fernando Canesin 90+1'
L. Dimata 77'
K. Musona 74'
A. Milić 49', 13'
11/19/2016Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 15Albertpark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Oostende38%
×Draw24%
KVC Westerlo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.55
KVC Westerlo
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 82 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.37
KVC Westerlo
1.35

allows per match

Oostende
1.76
KVC Westerlo
1.73

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
62%
Oostende or KVC Westerlo
76%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
62%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
18%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
79%
Oostende 2+ goals
46%
Oostende 3+ goals
20%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
46%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
50%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.37 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

KVC Westerlo attack 1.35 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oostende scores more
38%
level
24%
KVC Westerlo scores more
38%

Oostende at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Nemanja Miletic
13'
A. Milić↳ F. Berrier
43'
Mathias Bossaerts
46'
S. Siani← M. Bossaerts
49'
A. Milić
64'
R. Henkens← D. Christensen
64'
E. Acolatse← J. Molenberghs
66'
Sébastien Siani
72'
K. Musona← Y. El Ghanassy
74'
K. Musona
76'
Benjamin De Ceulaer
77'
L. Dimata↳ Fernando Canesin
78'
Z. Cyriac← L. Dimata
89'
Antonio Milic
90+1'
Fernando Canesin↳ A. Marušić

Possession

51%Oostende

Shots

11Oostende

Statistics

OostendeKVC
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots5
7Corners1
13Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots5
8On Target3
3Off Target2
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Oostende vs KVC Westerlo

Oostende beat KVC Westerlo 5-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 19, 2016.

Goals: A. Milić (13', 49'), K. Musona (74'), L. Dimata (77'), Fernando Canesin (90+1').

Oostende controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Albertpark Stadium in Oostend.