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KVC Westerlo vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
A. Marušić 90+1'
M. Jonckheere 80'
K. Musona 76'
L. Dimata 52' (pen)
2/25/2017Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 28Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

KVC Westerlo48%
×Draw23%
Oostende29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.76
Oostende
1.31

KVC Westerlo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 85 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.71
Oostende
1.00

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.63
Oostende
1.81

finishing

KVC Westerlo+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
71%
KVC Westerlo or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
52%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
26%
Oostende wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
83%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
52%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
26%
Oostende 1+ goals
73%
Oostende 2+ goals
38%
Oostende 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
63%
Oostende (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.71 + Oostende defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Oostende attack 1.00 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
48%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
29%

KVC Westerlo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Maxime Annys
43'
Bruno Godeau
46'
C. Strandberg← N. Rommens
52'
L. DimataPenalty
62'
Fernando Canesin← Y. El Ghanassy
73'
M. Jonckheere← F. Berrier
76'
K. Musona↳ Fernando Canesin
77'
M. Apau← N. Miletić
77'
R. Henkens← M. Annys
80'
M. Jonckheere↳ L. Dimata
81'
Benjamin De Ceulaer
85'
J. Akpala← L. Dimata
86'
Brecht Capon
90+1'
A. Marušić↳ M. Jonckheere

Possession

52%KVC

Shots

9KVC

Statistics

KVCOostende
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots13
2Corners4
14Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots13
2On Target8
7Off Target5
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Jupiler Pro League: KVC Westerlo 0–4 Oostende

Oostende beat KVC Westerlo 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on February 25, 2017.

Goals: L. Dimata (52' pen), K. Musona (76'), M. Jonckheere (80'), A. Marušić (90+1').

KVC Westerlo controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.