Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KVC Westerlo vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
H. Akbunar 81'
L. Foster 53', 49'
N. Chadli 40' (pen)
T. Dierckx 28'
N. Dorgeles 16'
11/12/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 17Het Kuipje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

KVC Westerlo50%
×Draw23%
Oostende27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KVC Westerlo
1.81
Oostende
1.29

KVC Westerlo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

creates per match

KVC Westerlo
1.75
Oostende
0.96

allows per match

KVC Westerlo
1.61
Oostende
1.86

finishing

KVC Westerlo+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KVC Westerlo ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KVC Westerlo or draw
73%
KVC Westerlo or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
50%

Winning margin

KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
27%
Oostende wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
84%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
54%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
27%
Oostende 1+ goals
72%
Oostende 2+ goals
37%
Oostende 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
64%
Oostende (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KVC Westerlo at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.61 · 80 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KVC Westerlo attack 1.75 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Oostende attack 0.96 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KVC Westerlo scores more
50%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
27%

KVC Westerlo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
N. DorgelesKVC WesterloKVC Westerlo · F
8.5

Match Events

16'
N. Dorgeles↳ M. De Cuyper
28'
T. Dierckx
33'
Nene Dorgeles
40'
N. ChadliPenalty
46'
M. Osifo← Kenny Rocha Santos
46'
B. Capon← F. Katelaris
46'
D. Atanga← I. Boonen
49'
L. Foster↳ N. Dorgeles
53'
L. Foster
57'
N. Bätzner← T. Ambrose
60'
Fraser Hornby
65'
H. Akbunar← N. Chadli
70'
Cameron McGeehan
73'
R. Neustädter← Lucas Mineiro
73'
K. Vaesen← N. Dorgeles
78'
E. Jordanov← B. Reynolds
79'
Igor Vetokele← L. Foster
81'
H. Akbunar↳ M. De Cuyper
85'
A. Musayev← T. Sakamoto

Possession

66%KVC

Shots

16KVC

Pass accuracy

56%KVC

Statistics

KVCOostende
Overview
66%Possession34%
16Total Shots7
5Corners3
8Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots7
8On Target0
4Off Target3
4Blocked4
10Inside Box4
6Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
547Total Passes280
454Accurate Passes185
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides2

Match Recap: KVC Westerlo vs Oostende

KVC Westerlo beat Oostende 6-0 in Jupiler Pro League on November 12, 2022.

Goals: N. Dorgeles (16'), T. Dierckx (28'), N. Chadli (40' pen), L. Foster (49', 53'), H. Akbunar (81').

KVC Westerlo controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Het Kuipje in Westerlo.