Oostende 2–1 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS Eupen

N. Bätzner 81'

M. Gueye 74'

S. Prevljak 14'

12/4/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 17Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende44%

×Draw24%

AS Eupen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.37

Oostende

1.66

AS Eupen

1.37

Oostende creates 21% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 99 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

1.78

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

68%

Oostende or AS Eupen

76%

Draw or AS Eupen

56%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

23%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

81%

Oostende 2+ goals

49%

Oostende 3+ goals

23%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

75%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

40%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

58%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oostende scores more

44%

level

24%

AS Eupen scores more

32%

Oostende at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

N. Bätzner

Oostende · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Kenny Rocha Santos

5'

N. Bätzner← V. Koziello

14'

Smail PrevljakGoal confirmed

14'

S. Prevljak↳ S. Peeters

35'

Jens Cools

46'

A. Amade← F. Jäkel

46'

I. Nuhu← S. Keita

57'

Makhtar GueyePenalty cancelled

66'

J. Déom← Carlos Embalo

66'

E. Agbadou← A. Beck

70'

R. D'Haese← Kenny Rocha Santos

74'

J. Ngoy← S. Prevljak

74'

M. Gueye↳ T. Matam

81'

N. Bätzner↳ T. Ambrose

82'

K. N’Dri← E. Kayembe

87'

D. Atanga← T. Ambrose

90+1'

Alfons Amade

90+1'

Stef Peeters

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeAS

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots4

10Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots4

6On Target2

3Off Target2

8Blocked0

13Inside Box2

4Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

450Total Passes325

311Accurate Passes199

69%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4