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AS Eupen vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Oostende
Oostende
R. Charles-Cook 84'
B. Lambert 76'
S. Prevljak 59'
D. Gassama 45+3'
M. Rodin 90+7'
F. Hornby 61'
T. Ndicka 56'
T. Ambrose 13' (pen)
3/11/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 29Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

AS Eupen41%
×Draw25%
Oostende34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.50
Oostende
1.36

AS Eupen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 85 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Oostende
1.00

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Oostende
1.81

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
66%
AS Eupen or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
59%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
20%
Oostende wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
78%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
44%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
19%
Oostende 1+ goals
74%
Oostende 2+ goals
39%
Oostende 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
54%
Oostende (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Oostende defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oostende attack 1.00 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Eupen scores more
41%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
34%

AS Eupen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
D. GassamaAS EupenAS Eupen · F
8.2

Match Events

13'
T. AmbrosePenalty
16'
Anton Tanghe
35'
O. Urhoghide← M. Barać
39'
Anton Tanghe
45+3'
D. Gassama↳ K. N’Dri
46'
Cameron McGeehan
46'
B. Capon← K. Arase
55'
R. Paeshuyse← J. Davidson
55'
S. Prevljak← L. Bessilé
56'
T. Ndicka
58'
Fraser Hornby
59'
S. Prevljak↳ D. Gassama
61'
F. Hornby↳ T. Sakamoto
68'
N. Bätzner← T. Ambrose
76'
B. Lambert↳ G. Magnée
83'
A. Amade← S. Dewaele
84'
R. Charles-Cook↳ Y. Van Genechten
89'
T. Alloh← R. Charles-Cook
90+5'
I. Christie-Davies← K. N’Dri
90+7'
M. Rodin↳ G. Hubert

Possession

67%AS

Shots

29AS

Pass accuracy

60%AS

Statistics

ASOostende
Overview
67%Possession33%
29Total Shots14
9Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
29Total Shots14
10On Target9
9Off Target3
10Blocked2
20Inside Box10
9Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
518Total Passes250
406Accurate Passes130
78%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 4–4 Oostende

AS Eupen and Oostende drew 4-4 in Jupiler Pro League on March 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Ambrose (13' pen), D. Gassama (45+3'), T. Ndicka (56'), S. Prevljak (59'), F. Hornby (61'), B. Lambert (76'), R. Charles-Cook (84'), M. Rodin (90+7').

AS Eupen controlled possession (67%) and registered 29 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadion am Kehrweg in Eupen.