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AS Eupen vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
A. Baby 84'
A. Hjulsager 49'
2/20/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 27Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

AS Eupen42%
×Draw25%
Oostende34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.52
Oostende
1.34

AS Eupen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 83 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Oostende
0.96

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Oostende
1.86

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
66%
AS Eupen or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
58%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
20%
Oostende wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
78%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
45%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
20%
Oostende 1+ goals
74%
Oostende 2+ goals
39%
Oostende 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
55%
Oostende (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oostende attack 0.96 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Eupen scores more
42%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
34%

AS Eupen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
Jens Cools
49'
A. Hjulsager↳ J. Bataille
60'
K. N’Dri← J. Cools
63'
Anton Tanghe
66'
M. Thiam← M. Kvasina
67'
Edo Kayembe
67'
N. Bätzner← K. Vandendriessche
71'
A. Baby← A. Boljević
84'
A. Baby↳ K. N’Dri
86'
F. Marquet← M. DArpino
88'
Stef Peeters
90'
Jelle Bataille
90+2'
F. Jäkel← A. Theate

Statistics

ASOostende
Overview
0Total Shots0
3Corners2
0Fouls0
Shots
0Total Shots0
0On Target0
0Off Target0
0Blocked0
Discipline
0Fouls0
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 1–1 Oostende

AS Eupen and Oostende drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 20, 2021.

Goals: A. Hjulsager (49'), A. Baby (84').

The match was played at Stadion am Kehrweg in Eupen.