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Oostende vs AS Eupen — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
2/16/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 26Versluys Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Oostende45%
×Draw24%
AS Eupen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.67
AS Eupen
1.36

Oostende creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.37
AS Eupen
0.96

allows per match

Oostende
1.76
AS Eupen
1.97

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
69%
Oostende or AS Eupen
76%
Draw or AS Eupen
55%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
23%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
81%
Oostende 2+ goals
50%
Oostende 3+ goals
23%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
74%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
39%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
59%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.37 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oostende scores more
45%
level
24%
AS Eupen scores more
31%

Oostende at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Oostende 1–1 AS Eupen

Oostende and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Versluys Arena in Oostend.