Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

One Knoxville vs Northern Colorado — USL League One Cup 2024

One Knoxville
One Knoxville
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
5/11/2024USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Group Stage - 1Regal Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

One Knoxville13%
×Draw19%
Northern Colorado68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

One Knoxville
0.83
Northern Colorado
2.20

Northern Colorado creates 165% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

One Knoxville
1.00
Northern Colorado
3.00

allows per match

One Knoxville
1.40
Northern Colorado
0.67

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw
32%
One Knoxville or Northern Colorado
81%
Draw or Northern Colorado
87%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+
4%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals
56%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
20%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
5%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
89%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
64%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)
16%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 1.00 + Northern Colorado defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Northern Colorado attack 3.00 + One Knoxville defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

One Knoxville scores more
13%
level
19%
Northern Colorado scores more
68%

Northern Colorado at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: One Knoxville vs Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado beat One Knoxville 5-1 in USL League One Cup on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Regal Soccer Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee.