One Knoxville 2–4 Northern Colorado: Result & Stats

One Knoxville

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Northern Colorado

7/11/2023

USL League One · Round 11Regal Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

One Knoxville41%

×Draw28%

Northern Colorado31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

One KnoxvilleExpected goals in this matchNorthern Colorado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.07

One Knoxville

1.28

Northern Colorado

1.07

One Knoxville creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 43 away

1.40

creates per match

1.26

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

One Knoxville

1.40

Northern Colorado

1.26

allows per match

One Knoxville

0.89

Northern Colorado

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

One Knoxville+0.00on par

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

One Knoxville ↓

Northern Colorado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

One Knoxville or draw

69%

One Knoxville or Northern Colorado

72%

Draw or Northern Colorado

59%

Winning margin

One Knoxville wins by 2+

18%

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

One Knoxville 1+ goals

72%

One Knoxville 2+ goals

37%

One Knoxville 3+ goals

14%

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

66%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

29%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

One Knoxville (draw refunded)

57%

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

One Knoxville at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

One Knoxville attack 1.40 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + One Knoxville defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

One Knoxville scores more

41%

level

28%

Northern Colorado scores more

31%

One Knoxville at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff