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Northern Colorado vs One Knoxville — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
One Knoxville
One Knoxville
6/11/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 8TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado44%
×Draw26%
One Knoxville30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.48
One Knoxville
1.19

Northern Colorado creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 50 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
One Knoxville
1.24

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
One Knoxville
1.00

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

One Knoxville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
70%
Northern Colorado or One Knoxville
74%
Draw or One Knoxville
56%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
21%
One Knoxville wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
77%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
43%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
19%
One Knoxville 1+ goals
70%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
33%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
59%
One Knoxville (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + One Knoxville defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

One Knoxville attack 1.24 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
44%
level
26%
One Knoxville scores more
30%

Northern Colorado at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Colorado 0 – 0 One Knoxville

Northern Colorado and One Knoxville drew 0-0 in USL League One on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at TicketSmarter Stadium at Future Legends Complex in Windsor, Colorado.