Once Caldas 3–0 Internacional de Bogota

Once Caldas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

D. Moreno 89'

M. Zuleta 84'

L. Palacios 70'

4/16/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Once Caldas45%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Bogota28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.06

Once Caldas

1.41

Internacional de Bogota

1.06

Once Caldas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

0.81

1.32

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.25

Internacional de Bogota

0.81

allows per match

Once Caldas

1.32

Internacional de Bogota

1.56

+0.75scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.75scores more

Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

72%

Once Caldas or Internacional de Bogota

73%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

55%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

76%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

41%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

17%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

65%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

29%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.25 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Once Caldas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Once Caldas scores more

45%

level

27%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

28%

Once Caldas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Zuleta

Once Caldas · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

Mateo García

46'

E. Beltran← M. Garcia

46'

L. Palacios← J. A. Zapata Ramirez

49'

Fabian Chaverra

62'

M. Zuleta← J. Contreras

69'

A. Del Valle← W. Cruz

69'

R. Julio← Y. Abonia

70'

A. Torralvo← S. Mayo

70'

L. Palacios↳ M. Zuleta

75'

Luis PalaciosGoal confirmed

76'

J. Garcia← A. Garcia Castillo

79'

J. Diaz← J. Patino

84'

M. Zuleta↳ E. Beltran

89'

D. Moreno↳ J. D. Cuesta Santos

90+2'

Renan Oliveira← B. D. Castro Espinosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OnceInternacional

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots17

7Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots17

6On Target3

3Off Target9

2Blocked5

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

419Total Passes319

325Accurate Passes248

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2