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Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2025

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
L. Riascos 70'
M. Barrios 76'
8/4/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota42%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.20
Once Caldas
0.93

Internacional de Bogota creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.17
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
0.94
Once Caldas
1.23

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more
Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
72%
Internacional de Bogota or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
58%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
18%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
70%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
34%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
12%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
61%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
24%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
60%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
42%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
28%

Internacional de Bogota at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
L. RiascosInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
Léider Riascos
10'
Michael Barrios
26'
Martín Payares
46'
J. Mahecha← J. Ceballos
46'
S. Gómez← D. Castillo
58'
Sergio Palacios
66'
J. Zapata← L. Palacios
66'
R. Mejía← I. Rojas
70'
L. Riascos↳ É. Ricardo
72'
L. Ríos← A. García
72'
J. Hernández← D. Moreno
76'
M. Barrios↳ L. Ríos
84'
J. Lloreda← D. Camacho
84'
J. Carvajal← É. Ricardo
84'
L. Escalante← A. Torralvo
88'
Lucas Ríos
90+6'
Juan Mahecha
90+6'
Leiner Escalante
90+6'
James Aguirre
90+6'
Mateo García

Possession

50%Internacional

Shots

11Internacional

Pass accuracy

49%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalOnce
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots10
6Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots10
4On Target3
7Off Target5
0Blocked2
7Inside Box3
4Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
322Total Passes336
232Accurate Passes248
72%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
3Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas

Internacional de Bogota and Once Caldas drew 1-1 in Primera A on August 4, 2024.

Goals: L. Riascos (70'), M. Barrios (76').

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera in Bogotá, D.C..