Internacional de Bogota 1–2 Once Caldas

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Once Caldas

J. Riquett 12' (OG)

B. Arce 58'

D. Moreno 14'

5/31/2024

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Internacional de Bogota42%

×Draw29%

Once Caldas28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.93

Internacional de Bogota

1.20

Once Caldas

0.93

Internacional de Bogota creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.17

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.94

Once Caldas

1.23

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.33scores more

Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

72%

Internacional de Bogota or Once Caldas

71%

Draw or Once Caldas

58%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

18%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

12%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

61%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

24%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

60%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.17 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

42%

level

29%

Once Caldas scores more

28%

Internacional de Bogota at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Mahecha

Internacional de Bogota · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

J. RiquettOwn goal

14'

22'

27'

44'

44'

46'

46'

S. Valencia← S. Palacios

49'

Juan CeballosCard upgrade

50'

Juan Ceballos

52'

Kevin Andrés Salazar← Kevin David Salazar

56'

Jaider Riquett

58'

B. Arce

59'

J. Araujo← I. Rojas

60'

B. Caicedo← J. Lloreda

65'

F. Cifuentes← J. Patiño

86'

J. Garcia← B. Arce

86'

E. Beltrán← A. García

90'

L. Escalante← B. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalOnce

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots10

3Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target3

7Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

274Total Passes500

223Accurate Passes447

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Primera A on May 31, 2024.

Goals: J. Riquett (12' o.g.), D. Moreno (14'), B. Arce (58').

Once Caldas controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Once Caldas