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Once Caldas vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Once Caldas
Once Caldas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
7/14/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Once Caldas45%
×Draw27%
Internacional de Bogota28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Once Caldas
1.41
Internacional de Bogota
1.06

Once Caldas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Once Caldas
1.25
Internacional de Bogota
0.81

allows per match

Once Caldas
1.32
Internacional de Bogota
1.56

finishing

Once Caldas+0.75scores more
Internacional de Bogota-0.06on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw
72%
Once Caldas or Internacional de Bogota
73%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
55%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+
22%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals
76%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
41%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
17%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
65%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
29%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)
61%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.25 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.81 + Once Caldas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Once Caldas scores more
45%
level
27%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
28%

Once Caldas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Once Caldas vs Internacional de Bogota

Once Caldas and Internacional de Bogota drew 1-1 in Primera A on July 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Palogrande in Manizales.