Once Caldas 1–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Once Caldas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

9/13/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Palogrande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Once Caldas50%

×Draw28%

Envigado22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Once CaldasExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.82

Once Caldas

1.37

Envigado

0.82

Once Caldas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 152 away

1.35

creates per match

0.76

0.88

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Once Caldas

1.35

Envigado

0.76

allows per match

Once Caldas

0.88

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Once Caldas ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Once Caldas or draw

78%

Once Caldas or Envigado

72%

Draw or Envigado

50%

Winning margin

Once Caldas wins by 2+

24%

Envigado wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Once Caldas 1+ goals

75%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

40%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

16%

Envigado 1+ goals

56%

Envigado 2+ goals

20%

Envigado 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

69%

Envigado (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Once Caldas at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 171 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Once Caldas attack 1.35 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Envigado attack 0.76 + Once Caldas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Once Caldas scores more

50%

level

28%

Envigado scores more

22%

Once Caldas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff