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Envigado vs Once Caldas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Envigado
Envigado
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
1/13/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Envigado31%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.00
Once Caldas
1.19

Once Caldas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.00
Once Caldas
1.14

allows per match

Envigado
1.25
Once Caldas
1.00

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
60%
Envigado or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
69%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
11%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
63%
Envigado 2+ goals
26%
Envigado 3+ goals
8%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
70%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
33%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
43%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.00 + Once Caldas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Once Caldas attack 1.14 + Envigado defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Envigado scores more
31%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
40%

Once Caldas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Once Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Envigado 0–2 Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Envigado 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2025.