Envigado 1–2 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Once Caldas

5/1/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Envigado41%

×Draw29%

Once Caldas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.98

Envigado

1.19

Once Caldas

0.98

Envigado creates 21% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 168 away

1.12

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Envigado

1.12

Once Caldas

0.86

allows per match

Envigado

1.09

Once Caldas

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

70%

Envigado or Once Caldas

71%

Draw or Once Caldas

59%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

18%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

70%

Envigado 2+ goals

33%

Envigado 3+ goals

12%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

62%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

26%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

57%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 154 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.12 + Once Caldas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Once Caldas attack 0.86 + Envigado defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Envigado scores more

41%

level

29%

Once Caldas scores more

30%

Envigado at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff