Olympiakos 1–0 Nea Salamis: Result & Stats

Olympiakos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nea Salamis

N. Dosis 90+2'

4/22/2023

1. Division · Relegation Round - 7Makareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos38%

×Draw28%

Nea Salamis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympiakosExpected goals in this matchNea Salamis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Olympiakos

1.23

Nea Salamis

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 88 away

0.97

creates per match

1.11

1.16

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Olympiakos

0.97

Nea Salamis

1.11

allows per match

Olympiakos

1.16

Nea Salamis

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Nea Salamis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw

66%

Olympiakos or Nea Salamis

72%

Draw or Nea Salamis

62%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+

17%

Nea Salamis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals

71%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

35%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

13%

Nea Salamis 1+ goals

68%

Nea Salamis 2+ goals

32%

Nea Salamis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

53%

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympiakos scores more

38%

level

28%

Nea Salamis scores more

34%

Olympiakos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

31'

32'

43'

45+5'

46'

46'

F. Durmishaj← E. Salli

46'

Z. Adoni← A. Diakité

57'

Carlitos← T. Nikolaou

57'

R. Ofori← A. Fragkos

62'

M. Pechlivanis← M. Christodoulou

62'

Nani Soares← B. Alceus

73'

Pierre Bardy

80'

M. Koumouris← É. Bauthéac

86'

T. Gorupec← M. Šlogar

88'

Juan Felipe← V. Klimovich

90+2'

N. Dosis

Shots

Statistics

OlympiakosNea

Overview

10Total Shots8

4Corners8

21Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots8

2On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls15

6Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0