Nea Salamis 2–2 Olympiakos: Result & Stats

Nea Salamis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Olympiakos

Miguelito 84'

D. Dorregaray 27'

S. Mouktaris 63'

F. Kah 35'

2/26/2023

1. Division · Round 25Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nea Salamis40%

×Draw26%

Olympiakos35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nea SalamisExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.30

Nea Salamis

1.41

Olympiakos

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 83 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.65

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Nea Salamis

1.26

Olympiakos

0.95

allows per match

Nea Salamis

1.65

Olympiakos

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Olympiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw

65%

Nea Salamis or Olympiakos

74%

Draw or Olympiakos

60%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+

19%

Olympiakos wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals

76%

Nea Salamis 2+ goals

41%

Nea Salamis 3+ goals

17%

Olympiakos 1+ goals

73%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

37%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)

53%

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Olympiakos defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olympiakos attack 0.95 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nea Salamis scores more

40%

level

26%

Olympiakos scores more

35%

Nea Salamis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

D. Dorregaray

35'

F. Kah

46'

Miguelito← A. Diakité

60'

Stephanos Charalambous

62'

É. Bauthéac← S. Sallalich

63'

S. Mouktaris

64'

O. Koroma← S. Charalambous

69'

V. Klimovich← G. Mandjeck

69'

R. Margaça← Carlitos

74'

Fabrice Kah

75'

L. Enoh← F. Kah

77'

80'

82'

84'

85'

Thiago Santos← R. Ofori

Shots

Statistics

NeaOlympiakos

Overview

7Total Shots8

3Corners3

18Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target4

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls17

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1