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Nea Salamis vs Olympiakos — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olympiakos
Olympiakos
B. Osei 27'
V. Mantzis 80'
E. Salli 32'
2/5/20211. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nea Salamis40%
×Draw26%
Olympiakos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.41
Olympiakos
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Olympiakos
0.95

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Olympiakos
1.55

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Olympiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Olympiakos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
65%
Nea Salamis or Olympiakos
74%
Draw or Olympiakos
60%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
19%
Olympiakos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
76%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
41%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
17%
Olympiakos 1+ goals
73%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
37%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
53%
Olympiakos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Olympiakos defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olympiakos attack 0.95 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
40%
level
26%
Olympiakos scores more
35%

Nea Salamis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Paris Psaltis
27'
B. Osei
32'
E. Salli
38'
Mamadou Kamissoko
49'
Constantinos Sotiriou
65'
S. Tsoukalas← D. Duventru
66'
V. Mantzis← S. Kostov
66'
M. Pechlivanis← Gustavo
70'
V. Créhin← S. Mustivar
70'
T. Wagner← Nico Varela
71'
Danilo
75'
Omar Santana← E. Salli
80'
V. Mantzis
83'
Marios Pechlivanis
90'
T. Siathas← K. Serghiou
90'
Sambinha← F. Nkwoh
90'
Christian Manrique← K. Sarfo

Statistics

NeaOlympiakos
Overview
2Corners3
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

1. Division: Nea Salamis 1–2 Olympiakos

Olympiakos beat Nea Salamis 2-1 in 1. Division on February 5, 2021.

Goals: B. Osei (27'), E. Salli (32'), V. Mantzis (80').

The match was played at Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.