Olympiakos 0–0 AEL: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Olympiakos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AEL

12/14/2025

1. Division · Round 14GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos39%

×Draw28%

AEL33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympiakosExpected goals in this matchAEL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Olympiakos

1.21

AEL

1.09

Olympiakos creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 117 away

0.97

creates per match

1.03

1.16

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Olympiakos

0.97

AEL

1.03

allows per match

Olympiakos

1.16

AEL

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par

AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

AEL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw

67%

Olympiakos or AEL

72%

Draw or AEL

61%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+

17%

AEL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals

70%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

34%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

12%

AEL 1+ goals

66%

AEL 2+ goals

30%

AEL 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

54%

AEL (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

AEL attack 1.03 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympiakos scores more

39%

level

28%

AEL scores more

33%

Olympiakos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Stefanos Charalampous

36'

40'

45+3'

45+3'

63'

63'

66'

73'

B. Z. Jradi← A. Makris

73'

S. Keller← L. Bogdan

79'

Stefanos Charalampous

79'

Stefanos Charalampous

81'

A. Bajrovic← I. Pikis

82'

F. Forestieri← I. Milosavljevic

85'

E. Stefanou← Vieirinha

90+2'

A. Loucoubar← J. Tavares

Olympiakos3-4-3

AEL4-2-3-1

33

▼

23

26

35

37

19

▼

Milosavlj

24

Imanishim

15

Stevanovi

21

▼

11

13

1

55

37

94

19

17

▼

Vieirinha

20

▼

Tavares

31

Injgia

88

Charalamp

9

▼

Pikis

99

Bradonjic

Manager: Georgios Kostis

81'▲A. Bajrovic←▼I. Pikis

85'▲E. Stefanou←▼Vieirinha

90+2'▲A. Loucoubar←▼J. Tavares

Olympiakos substitutes

32Kyriakou45Bakadimas5Loucoubar40Charalampous70Stefanou34Mario16Kalogirou22Angeli80Efzona10Bajrovic25Prokopiou

Manager: Hugo Martins

73'▲B. Z. Jradi←▼A. Makris

73'▲S. Keller←▼L. Bogdan

82'▲F. Forestieri←▼I. Milosavljevic

AEL substitutes

99Keravnos2Frantzis25Filiotis10Jradi17Christodoulou9Ferrier98Kyriakou97Keller42Wheeler8Papafotis6Zdravkovski45Forestieri

1. Division: Olympiakos 0–0 AEL

Olympiakos and AEL drew 0-0 in 1. Division on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.

Olympiakos vs AEL — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Olympiakos 0–0 AEL