AEL 1–0 Olympiakos: Result & Stats | Cup

AEL

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olympiakos

J. Mendoza 89'

4/26/2023

Cup · Semi-finalsAlphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEL43%

×Draw30%

Olympiakos27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AELExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.85

AEL

1.15

Olympiakos

0.85

AEL creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.11

0.60

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

AEL

1.40

Olympiakos

1.11

allows per match

AEL

0.60

Olympiakos

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEL+0.00on par

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Olympiakos →

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

AEL or draw

73%

AEL or Olympiakos

70%

Draw or Olympiakos

57%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+

18%

Olympiakos wins by 2+

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals

68%

AEL 2+ goals

32%

AEL 3+ goals

11%

Olympiakos 1+ goals

57%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

21%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)

61%

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.40 + Olympiakos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Olympiakos attack 1.11 + AEL defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

AEL scores more

43%

level

30%

Olympiakos scores more

27%

AEL at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

25'

33'

45+3'

45+4'

46'

F. Kah← S. Charalambous

65'

A. Makris← J. Khasa

65'

N. Milinceanu← J. Romo

65'

S. Medojević← V. Papafotis

73'

O. Koroma← F. Durmishaj

80'

S. Hendriks← F. Kah

86'

M. Kolias← E. Andreou

88'

89'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

P. Filipović← J. Mendoza

90+1'

M. Šlogar← M. Pechlivanis

AEL

Olympiakos

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Charalambous

65'▲A. Makris←▼J. Khasa

65'▲N. Milinceanu←▼J. Romo

65'▲S. Medojević←▼V. Papafotis

86'▲M. Kolias←▼E. Andreou

90+3'▲P. Filipović←▼J. Mendoza

AEL substitutes

MakrisMilinceanuMedojevićKoliasFilipovićFrantzisSylvestrosBilovarKyriakouOliveiraBerahinoContinella

Manager: N. Tutiç

46'▲F. Kah←▼S. Charalambous

73'▲O. Koroma←▼F. Durmishaj

80'▲S. Hendriks←▼F. Kah

90+1'▲M. Šlogar←▼M. Pechlivanis

Olympiakos substitutes

KahKoromaHendriksŠlogarZefkiCharlesSalliEnohChristodoulouDosisSoaresGiakoumakis

Cup: AEL 1–0 Olympiakos

AEL beat Olympiakos 1-0 in Cup on April 26, 2023.

Goals: J. Mendoza (89').

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.

AEL vs Olympiakos — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: AEL 1–0 Olympiakos