AEL 1–3 Olympiakos: Result & Stats | 1. Division

AEL

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Olympiakos

Z. Sawo 5'

L. Konomis 61'

V. Kovalenko 42'

I. Pikis 11'

5/9/2026

1. Division · Relegation Group - 32Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AEL48%

×Draw27%

Olympiakos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AELExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.94

AEL

1.40

Olympiakos

0.94

AEL creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

0.77

1.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

AEL

1.53

Olympiakos

0.77

allows per match

AEL

1.10

Olympiakos

1.27

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

AEL-0.09on par

Olympiakos+0.40scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEL ↓

Olympiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AEL or draw

75%

AEL or Olympiakos

73%

Draw or Olympiakos

52%

Winning margin

AEL wins by 2+

23%

Olympiakos wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AEL 1+ goals

75%

AEL 2+ goals

41%

AEL 3+ goals

17%

Olympiakos 1+ goals

61%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

24%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AEL (draw refunded)

65%

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEL at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEL attack 1.53 + Olympiakos defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Olympiakos attack 0.77 + AEL defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AEL scores more

48%

level

27%

Olympiakos scores more

25%

AEL at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

O. Dzepar

Olympiakos · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

10'

11'

34'

34'

42'

57'

59'

A. Loucoubar← Joao Mario

59'

R. Moreira← V. Kovalenko

61'

L. Konomis

62'

A. Makris← B. Z. Jradi

74'

D. Zdravkovski← N. Glavcic

74'

V. Papafotis← P. Panagi

74'

D. Paroutis← F. R. Mughe

75'

M. Charalampous← Vieirinha

81'

G. Tocka← Jean Felipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AELOlympiakos

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots16

1.12Expected Goals (xG)0.97

1Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots16

2On Target6

3Off Target4

4Blocked6

7Inside Box13

3Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

394Total Passes478

326Accurate Passes425

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides5