Olimpia 3–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Flamengo

F. Bruera 80'

R. Ortiz 69'

I. Torres 12'

Bruno Henrique 8'

8/11/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia27%

×Draw25%

Flamengo48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.55

Olimpia

1.10

Flamengo

1.55

Flamengo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

1.30

1.80

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Olimpia

1.60

Flamengo

1.30

allows per match

Olimpia

1.80

Flamengo

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

52%

Olimpia or Flamengo

75%

Draw or Flamengo

73%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

10%

Flamengo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

67%

Olimpia 2+ goals

30%

Olimpia 3+ goals

10%

Flamengo 1+ goals

79%

Flamengo 2+ goals

46%

Flamengo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

36%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.60 + Flamengo defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Flamengo attack 1.30 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia scores more

27%

level

25%

Flamengo scores more

48%

Flamengo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Silva

Olimpia · D

7.3

Match Events

-5'

Diego Torres

7'

Richard Ortiz

8'

Bruno Henrique↳ G. de Arrascaeta

12'

I. Torres↳ F. Cardozo

52'

Wesley França

59'

Jhohan Romaña

60'

B. Montenegro← M. Gómez

60'

R. Martínez← H. Fernández

67'

F. Bruera← W. González

67'

Victor Hugo← Éverton Ribeiro

69'

R. Ortiz↳ F. Zabala

77'

Filipe Luís

77'

Ayrton Lucas← Filipe Luís

78'

Allan← Gerson

79'

Gabriel Barbosa

80'

F. Bruera↳ F. Zabala

83'

Luiz Araújo← Thiago Maia

85'

Alejandro Silva

86'

J. Barreto← I. Torres

86'

V. Salazar← A. Silva

87'

Facundo Zabala

90+8'

Luiz Araújo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlimpiaFlamengo

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots4

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.38

6Corners0

11Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots4

4On Target3

7Off Target1

3Blocked0

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box0

Passing

45%Possession55%

362Total Passes462

275Accurate Passes376

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides6

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Olimpia 3–1 Flamengo

Olimpia beat Flamengo 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 11, 2023.

Goals: Bruno Henrique (8'), I. Torres (12'), R. Ortiz (69'), F. Bruera (80').

Flamengo controlled possession (55%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Olimpia vs Flamengo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Olimpia 3–1 Flamengo