Olimpia 1–4 Flamengo: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Flamengo

I. Torres 4 45+14'

Vitinho 90+1'

2 Gabriel Barbosa 52', 45+12' (pen)

G. De Arrascaeta 16'

8/11/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Quarter-finalsEstadio Manuel Ferreira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olimpia27%

×Draw25%

Flamengo48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.55

Olimpia

1.10

Flamengo

1.55

Flamengo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

1.30

1.80

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Olimpia

1.60

Flamengo

1.30

allows per match

Olimpia

1.80

Flamengo

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

52%

Olimpia or Flamengo

75%

Draw or Flamengo

73%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

10%

Flamengo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

67%

Olimpia 2+ goals

30%

Olimpia 3+ goals

10%

Flamengo 1+ goals

79%

Flamengo 2+ goals

46%

Flamengo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

36%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.60 + Flamengo defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Flamengo attack 1.30 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olimpia scores more

27%

level

25%

Flamengo scores more

48%

Flamengo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Gabriel Barbosa

Flamengo · F

9.7

Match Events

16'

G. De Arrascaeta↳ Bruno Henrique

20'

Richard Ortiz

32'

S. Otálvaro← V. Salazar

38'

42'

42'

45'

45+12'

2 Gabriel BarbosaPenalty

45+14'

I. Torres 4↳ S. Otálvaro

50'

Saúl Salcedo

52'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ Bruno Henrique

54'

Mauricio Isla

55'

Giorgian De Arrascaeta

57'

Ramon← Filipe Luís

57'

Matheuzinho← M. Isla

60'

J. Recalde← W. González

60'

H. Quintana← E. Orzusa

73'

Michael← Éverton Ribeiro

79'

N. Camacho← D. González

83'

Vitinho← Diego

83'

Thiago Maia← G. De Arrascaeta

90+1'

Vitinho↳ Gabriel Barbosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlimpiaFlamengo

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots22

6Corners0

18Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots22

3On Target9

5Off Target12

5Blocked1

8Inside Box17

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

362Total Passes401

264Accurate Passes310

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

5Offsides2