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Flamengo vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Flamengo
Flamengoadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Olimpia
Olimpia
Gabriel Barbosa 77', 30'
S. Salcedo 55' (OG)
Willian Arão 49'
Bruno Henrique 36'
J. Recalde 45'
8/18/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Quarter-finalsEstádio Nacional de Brasília

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo70%
×Draw18%
Olimpia12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
2.30
Olimpia
0.82

Flamengo creates 180% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Flamengo
2.00
Olimpia
1.20

allows per match

Flamengo
0.45
Olimpia
2.60

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
88%
Flamengo or Olimpia
82%
Draw or Olimpia
30%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
47%
Olimpia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
90%
Flamengo 2+ goals
67%
Flamengo 3+ goals
40%
Olimpia 1+ goals
56%
Olimpia 2+ goals
20%
Olimpia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
86%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.00 + Olimpia defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Olimpia attack 1.20 + Flamengo defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flamengo scores more
70%
level
18%
Olimpia scores more
12%

Flamengo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Gabriel BarbosaFlamengoFlamengo · F
8.7

Match Events

30'
Gabriel Barbosa↳ Rodinei
36'
Bruno Henrique↳ G. De Arrascaeta
45'
J. Recalde↳ B. Ojeda
46'
Ramón Sosa
48'
Braian Ojeda
49'
Willian Arão↳ Léo Pereira
54'
H. Quintana← R. Sosa
55'
S. SalcedoOwn goal
58'
Vitinho← Bruno Henrique
59'
Pedro← Éverton Ribeiro
59'
Michael← G. De Arrascaeta
59'
W. González← R. Santa Cruz
60'
N. Camacho← J. Recalde
65'
Vitinho
65'
Sergio Otálvaro
68'
Bruno Viana
70'
Ramon← Filipe Luís
75'
Matheuzinho← Rodinei
77'
Gabriel Barbosa↳ Diego
79'
F. Cardozo← D. González
79'
J. Santacruz← R. Ortiz
90'
Mateo Gamarra

Possession

58%Flamengo

Shots

10Flamengo

Pass accuracy

52%Flamengo

Statistics

FlamengoOlimpia
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots8
4Corners3
8Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots8
8On Target2
1Off Target6
1Blocked0
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
486Total Passes349
420Accurate Passes279
86%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Flamengo vs Olimpia

Flamengo beat Olimpia 5-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 18, 2021.

Goals: Gabriel Barbosa (30', 77'), Bruno Henrique (36'), J. Recalde (45'), Willian Arão (49'), S. Salcedo (55' o.g.).

Flamengo controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de Brasília in Brasília, Distrito Federal.