Olimpia 2–1 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Guarani

I. Leguizamon 90'

S. Ferreira 5'

A. Barbotte 90'

1/25/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Olimpia41%

×Draw28%

Club Guarani31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Olimpia

1.29

Club Guarani

1.08

Olimpia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.62

creates per match

1.27

0.90

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Olimpia

1.62

Club Guarani

1.27

allows per match

Olimpia

0.90

Club Guarani

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

69%

Olimpia or Club Guarani

72%

Draw or Club Guarani

59%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

19%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

72%

Olimpia 2+ goals

37%

Olimpia 3+ goals

14%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

66%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

29%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

57%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.62 + Club Guarani defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Club Guarani attack 1.27 + Olimpia defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia scores more

41%

level

28%

Club Guarani scores more

31%

Olimpia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Barbotte

Club Guarani · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

S. Ferreira↳ A. F. Rodriguez Armoa

46'

I. Leguizamon← R. Redes

46'

F. Alfonso← E. Delmas

46'

Jhon Sanchez← C. E. Mino Amarilla

47'

48'

50'

53'

56'

F. Cardozo←

63'

R. Torales← I. Ramirez

63'

D. Fernandez← L. Martinez

72'

Juan Daniel Pérez

80'

N. Romero← M. Lopez

80'

J. Llano← A. Maidana

82'

A. F. Franco Zayas← J. F. Alfaro

84'

A. Alcaraz← S. Ferreira

88'

Fernando Cardozo

90+3'

Ivan LeguizamonGoal confirmed

90+10'

Jhon Sánchez

90'

I. Leguizamon↳ H. Quintana

90'

A. Barbotte↳ R. Torales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlimpiaClub

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots14

4Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target5

7Off Target5

0Blocked4

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

324Total Passes366

247Accurate Passes290

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0