Club Guarani 0–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia

M. Gamarra 88'

E. Delmas 22'

3/21/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Guarani32%

×Draw29%

Olimpia39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.20

Club Guarani

1.06

Olimpia

1.20

Olimpia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.22

Olimpia

1.23

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.17

Olimpia

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

61%

Club Guarani or Olimpia

71%

Draw or Olimpia

68%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

12%

Olimpia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

65%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

29%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

9%

Olimpia 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia 2+ goals

34%

Olimpia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

45%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.22 + Olimpia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Olimpia attack 1.23 + Club Guarani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Guarani scores more

32%

level

29%

Olimpia scores more

39%

Olimpia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Gamarra

Olimpia · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Romeo Benítez

22'

E. Delmas↳ R. Sanchez

46'

R. Torales← D. Fernandez

46'

L. Martinez← A. Manzur

48'

Eduardo Delmas

56'

R. Lezcano← E. Delmas

67'

M. Lopez← J. Llano

67'

I. Ramirez← F. Fernandez

71'

H. Sandoval← S. Ferreira

71'

A. F. Franco Zayas← R. Sanchez

74'

Matías López

77'

Richard Ortiz

78'

N. Romero← D. Rodriguez

88'

90+9'

90+5'

90+5'

90+2'

Mateo GamarraRed card cancelled

90+7'

J. Vera← A. Alcaraz

90+7'

R. Perez←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubOlimpia

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots15

0.35Expected Goals (xG)1.35

2Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target4

4Off Target8

1Blocked3

3Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

276Total Passes367

172Accurate Passes269

62%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides4