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Olimpia vs Club Guarani — League #252 2026

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Club Guarani
Club Guarani
H. Quintana 72'
A. J. Benitez Cabrera 90'
D. Fernandez 63' (pen)
A. Barbotte 22'
10/26/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 18Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olimpia20%
×Draw29%
Club Guarani51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
0.71
Club Guarani
1.31

Club Guarani creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Olimpia
0.67
Club Guarani
1.63

allows per match

Olimpia
1.00
Club Guarani
0.75

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Club Guarani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
49%
Olimpia or Club Guarani
71%
Draw or Club Guarani
80%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
6%
Club Guarani wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
51%
Olimpia 2+ goals
16%
Olimpia 3+ goals
4%
Club Guarani 1+ goals
73%
Club Guarani 2+ goals
38%
Club Guarani 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
28%
Club Guarani (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 0.67 + Club Guarani defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Club Guarani attack 1.63 + Olimpia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olimpia scores more
20%
level
29%
Club Guarani scores more
51%

Club Guarani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
G. VargasOlimpiaOlimpia · D
8.2

Match Events

20'
David Martínez
22'
A. Barbotte↳ A. Manzur
27'
Ivan Ramirez
38'
Alex Franco
46'
R. Torales← Jhon Sanchez
56'
A. Maiz← F. Fernandez
56'
D. Fernandez← I. Ramirez
61'
Derlis RodríguezPenalty confirmed
63'
D. FernandezPenalty
64'
F. Insfran← G. Olveira
64'
H. Quintana← S. Ferreira
64'
T. I. Caballero Fleytas← A. Alcaraz
71'
Alcides Barbotte
72'
H. Quintana↳ G. Vargas
76'
C. E. Mino Amarilla← D. Rodriguez
82'
E. Lopez← L. Morales
82'
L. Abreu← I. Leguizamon
85'
M. Lopez← A. Manzur
86'
Tiago Caballero
90+6'
Javier Domínguez
90+6'
Javier DomínguezCard upgrade
90+8'
Sebastian Zaracho
90+3'
Alexandro Maidana
90'
A. J. Benitez Cabrera↳ C. E. Mino Amarilla

Possession

54%Olimpia

Shots

19Olimpia

Pass accuracy

50%Olimpia

Statistics

OlimpiaClub
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots10
2.73Expected Goals (xG)1.60
6Corners6
10Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots10
8On Target5
4Off Target1
7Blocked4
13Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
299Total Passes266
189Accurate Passes170
63%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
2Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Olimpia vs Club Guarani

Club Guarani beat Olimpia 3-1 in League #252 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Barbotte (22'), D. Fernandez (63' pen), H. Quintana (72'), A. J. Benitez Cabrera (90').

Olimpia controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb in Asuncion.