ABC 1–1 Luverdense: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Luverdense

Kayke 36'

Ciro 9'

5/24/2015

Serie B · Round 3Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ABC18%

×Draw34%

Luverdense48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchLuverdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.52

1.06

ABC

0.52

Luverdense

1.06

Luverdense creates 104% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

0.70

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Luverdense

1.00

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Luverdense

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Luverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Luverdense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–122%

0–212%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

ABC or draw

52%

ABC or Luverdense

66%

Draw or Luverdense

82%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

4%

Luverdense wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

41%

ABC 2+ goals

10%

ABC 3+ goals

2%

Luverdense 1+ goals

65%

Luverdense 2+ goals

29%

Luverdense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

27%

Luverdense (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Luverdense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Luverdense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Luverdense attack 1.00 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ABC scores more

18%

level

34%

Luverdense scores more

48%

Luverdense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Ciro↳ Paulinho

30'

Walace← Montoya

36'

Kayke↳ Fabinho Alves

46'

Diego Rosa← Luiz Eduardo

59'

Bruno Luiz← Erivélton

67'

Rafael Miranda← Dedé

67'

Júlio Terceiro← Michel Schmoller

73'

Chiclete← Fabinho Alves

ABC

Luverdense

1

Edson

3

▼

Montoya

6

A

Paulinho

2

Prata

4

Everton

8

▼

11

10

5

7

⚽

Ciro

9

▼

1

4

6

3

2

5

8

▼

Dedé

10

▼

Erivélton

11

A

▼

Alves

9

⚽

Kayke

7

Mendes

59'▲Bruno Luiz←▼Erivélton

67'▲Rafael Miranda←▼Dedé

73'▲Chiclete←▼Fabinho Alves

ABC substitutes

20Luiz17Miranda18Chiclete12Gilvan13Silva15Jardel19César16Loures14Marcilio

30'▲Walace←▼Montoya

46'▲Diego Rosa←▼Luiz Eduardo

67'▲Júlio Terceiro←▼Michel Schmoller

Luverdense substitutes

13Walace19Rosa16Terceiro17Ticão12Thomazella15Raphael14Silva18Lucas20Matta