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Luverdense vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Luverdense
Luverdense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ABC
ABC
7/16/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 14Estadio Municipal Passo das Emas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Luverdense59%
×Draw25%
ABC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luverdense
1.59
ABC
0.69

Luverdense creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

creates per match

Luverdense
1.67
ABC
0.70

allows per match

Luverdense
0.67
ABC
1.52

finishing

Luverdense+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luverdense ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luverdense or draw
84%
Luverdense or ABC
75%
Draw or ABC
41%

Winning margin

Luverdense wins by 2+
32%
ABC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luverdense 1+ goals
80%
Luverdense 2+ goals
47%
Luverdense 3+ goals
21%
ABC 1+ goals
50%
ABC 2+ goals
15%
ABC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Luverdense (draw refunded)
79%
ABC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luverdense at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luverdense attack 1.67 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

ABC attack 0.70 + Luverdense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Luverdense scores more
59%
level
25%
ABC scores more
16%

Luverdense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luverdense vs ABC

Luverdense beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on July 16, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Passo das Emas in Lucas do Rio Verde.