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ABC vs Luverdense — Serie B 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luverdense
Luverdense
Marcos Aurélio 12'
11/3/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 33Frasqueirão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ABC18%
×Draw34%
Luverdense48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
0.52
Luverdense
1.06

Luverdense creates 104% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

ABC
0.70
Luverdense
1.00

allows per match

ABC
1.13
Luverdense
0.33

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Luverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Luverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–122%
0–212%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

ABC or draw
52%
ABC or Luverdense
66%
Draw or Luverdense
82%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
4%
Luverdense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
41%
ABC 2+ goals
10%
ABC 3+ goals
2%
Luverdense 1+ goals
65%
Luverdense 2+ goals
29%
Luverdense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
27%
Luverdense (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Luverdense away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Luverdense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Luverdense attack 1.00 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ABC scores more
18%
level
34%
Luverdense scores more
48%

Luverdense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
WilliamLuverdenseLuverdense · D
7.6

Match Events

12'
Marcos Aurélio
22'
Sérgio Mota
34'
Pablo
55'
Neguete← Douglas Baggio
63'
Guly← Marcos Aurélio
65'
Dalberto← Felipe Guedes
70'
Paulinho
75'
Cleo Silva← Sérgio Mota
77'
Lucas Coelho← Berguinho
82'
Moacir
87'
Nixon← Daniel
89'
Guly Do Prado
90'
Neguete

Possession

56%ABC

Shots

26ABC

Pass accuracy

51%ABC

Statistics

ABCLuverdense
Overview
56%Possession44%
26Total Shots11
7Corners6
12Fouls24
Shots
26Total Shots11
1On Target4
14Off Target5
11Blocked2
13Inside Box7
13Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
412Total Passes343
328Accurate Passes261
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls24
0Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: ABC vs Luverdense

Luverdense beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on November 3, 2017.

Goals: Marcos Aurélio (12').

ABC controlled possession (56%) and registered 26 shots to 11.

The match was played at Frasqueirão in Natal.