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Oldham vs Walsall — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
19:45
Walsall
Walsall
1/19/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 26Boundary Park
Big match
39%
Walsall
model favours
34%27%39%

Walsall raise their game against the top half — 45% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oldham34%
×Draw27%
Walsall39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.19
Walsall
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 54 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.31
Walsall
1.44

allows per match

Oldham
1.17
Walsall
1.07

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
61%
Oldham or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
66%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
14%
Walsall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
33%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%
Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
37%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
46%
Walsall (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.31 + Walsall defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Walsall attack 1.44 + Oldham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oldham scores more
34%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Oldham play Defensively solid, Walsall Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Defensively solid
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession43%
63%Pass accuracy61%
11.8Shots11.1
1.40xGBiggest gap1.56
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamWalsall

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Oldham
1
Draws
3
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
2–10–11–21–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Walsall
DLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Walsall (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Walsall. Match starts January 19, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Walsall at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.