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Oldham vs Cheltenham — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Boundary Park
Big match
47%
Oldham
model favours
47%25%29%

Cheltenham win just 15% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oldham47%
×Draw25%
Cheltenham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.62
Cheltenham
1.21

Oldham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 48 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Cheltenham
1.17

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Cheltenham
1.90

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
71%
Oldham or Cheltenham
75%
Draw or Cheltenham
53%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
24%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
80%
Oldham 2+ goals
48%
Oldham 3+ goals
22%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
62%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.90 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Cheltenham defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cheltenham attack 1.17 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oldham scores more
47%
level
25%
Cheltenham scores more
29%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Cheltenham
Balanced
47%Possession49%
63%Pass accuracy67%
12.8Shots11.3
1.63xGBiggest gap1.25
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamCheltenham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Oldham
0
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 40%
2–13–00–22–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Cheltenham
LLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Cheltenham (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Cheltenham. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Cheltenham at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.