Cheltenham 3–0 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oldham

R. Broom 90+5'

A. May 76'

M. Sheaf 32'

1/4/2020

League Two · Round 26Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham27%

×Draw26%

Oldham47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.50

Cheltenham

1.06

Oldham

1.50

Oldham creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

1.43

1.56

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.20

Oldham

1.43

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.56

Oldham

0.93

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.40scores more

Oldham-0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

53%

Cheltenham or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

73%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Oldham wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

65%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Oldham 1+ goals

78%

Oldham 2+ goals

44%

Oldham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

36%

Oldham (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Oldham defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Oldham attack 1.43 + Cheltenham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cheltenham scores more

27%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

47%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Broom

Cheltenham · M

8.0

Match Events

32'

M. Sheaf↳ T. Campbell

53'

Zak Mills

62'

R. Lovett← S. Flinders

67'

C. Eagles← A. Iacovitti

73'

M. Maouche← D. Jones

76'

A. May

80'

J. Branger← C. Missilou

85'

S. Long← M. Sheaf

89'

G. Lloyd← T. Campbell

90+5'

R. Broom↳ S. Long

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamOldham

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots13

9Corners3

6Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target3

6Off Target6

3Blocked4

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

448Total Passes348

321Accurate Passes234

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2