Oldham 2–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

K. Payne 60'

J. Garner 45'

J. Thomas 26' (pen)

1/17/2026

League Two · Round 27Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Oldham48%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.14

Oldham

1.59

Cheltenham

1.14

Oldham creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 47 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Oldham

1.29

Cheltenham

1.17

allows per match

Oldham

1.11

Cheltenham

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

73%

Oldham or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

52%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

80%

Oldham 2+ goals

47%

Oldham 3+ goals

21%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

32%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

64%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.29 + Cheltenham defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cheltenham attack 1.17 + Oldham defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oldham scores more

48%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

27%

Oldham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Hudson

Oldham · G

8.2

Match Events

26'

J. ThomasPenalty

45'

J. Garner↳ R. Woods

46'

M. Fondop-Talum← L. Hannant

60'

K. Payne

72'

L. Kinsella← A. Jude-Boyd

73'

Ryan Woods

74'

J. Hawkes← K. Drummond

75'

J. Quigley← J. Garner

83'

85'

86'

86'

90+1'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamCheltenham

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.51

5Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target7

7Off Target2

1Blocked1

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

329Total Passes394

215Accurate Passes281

65%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1