Cheltenham 0–3 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oldham

J. Quigley 90'

L. Hannant 75' (pen)

W. Sutton 38'

9/20/2025

League Two · Round 9Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham28%

×Draw26%

Oldham46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.48

Cheltenham

1.08

Oldham

1.48

Oldham creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.39

1.56

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.20

Oldham

1.39

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.56

Oldham

0.97

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.40scores more

Oldham-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

54%

Cheltenham or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

72%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Oldham wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Oldham 1+ goals

77%

Oldham 2+ goals

43%

Oldham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

37%

Oldham (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Oldham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Oldham attack 1.39 + Cheltenham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cheltenham scores more

28%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

46%

Oldham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Hudson

Oldham · G

8.2

Match Events

38'

W. Sutton

46'

J. Quigley← M. Fondop-Talum

51'

D. Power← J. Mazionis

54'

Arkell Jude-Boyd

55'

Freddie Willcox

60'

H. Pell← L. Young

61'

G. Harmon← F. Willcox

61'

R. Broom← E. Archer

73'

K. Payne← M. Mellon

75'

L. HannantPenalty

79'

J. Bickerstaff← J. Martin

84'

K. Drummond← L. Hannant

89'

J. Caprice← W. Sutton

90+4'

Isaac Hutchinson

90'

J. Quigley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamOldham

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots22

6Corners7

14Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots22

2On Target9

3Off Target8

4Blocked5

1Inside Box15

8Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

292Total Passes324

196Accurate Passes207

67%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides4