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Oldham vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
10/5/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham41%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.42
Cheltenham
1.25

Oldham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 113 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Cheltenham
1.07

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Cheltenham
1.40

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
67%
Oldham or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
59%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
71%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
36%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
55%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Cheltenham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cheltenham attack 1.07 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oldham scores more
41%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
33%

Oldham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oldham vs Cheltenham

Oldham and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in League Two on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.