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Okzhetpes vs Khan Tengri — 1. Division 2019

Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
4/18/20241. Division1. Division · Round 3Stadion Oqjetpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Okzhetpes71%
×Draw16%
Khan Tengri13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okzhetpes
2.61
Khan Tengri
1.01

Okzhetpes creates 158% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 47 away

creates per match

Okzhetpes
3.37
Khan Tengri
1.34

allows per match

Okzhetpes
0.68
Khan Tengri
1.85

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par
Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Khan Tengri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw
87%
Okzhetpes or Khan Tengri
84%
Draw or Khan Tengri
29%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+
49%
Khan Tengri wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals
93%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
73%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
47%
Khan Tengri 1+ goals
64%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
27%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
85%
Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 3.37, concedes 0.68 · 38 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 3.37 + Khan Tengri defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.61

Khan Tengri attack 1.34 + Okzhetpes defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Okzhetpes scores more
71%
level
16%
Khan Tengri scores more
13%

Okzhetpes at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
D. Kalybayev
25'
A. Aydarbekuly
26'
N. Idrisov
33'
E. Kuantaev← M. Shakhmetov
57'
O. Adil← O. Adil
65'
K. Mukhametali← K. Mukhametali
65'
D. Kalybayev← N. Agzambayev
65'
P. Kriventsev← P. Kriventsev
68'
Z. Sultaniyazov← E. Gorshunov
68'
K. Komariden← K. Komariden
73'
I. Gagaev← I. Gagaev
73'
S. Dimitrov← M. Tuliev
78'
A. Taubay← M. Zhakipbayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Okzhetpes vs Khan Tengri

Okzhetpes and Khan Tengri drew 0-0 in 1. Division on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oqjetpes in Kokshetau.