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Khan Tengri vs Okzhetpes — 1. Division 2019

Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
A. Serikbay 72'
E. Gorshunov 45+2'
D. Zhumat 38'
8/9/20241. Division1. Division · Round 19Sportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Khan Tengri29%
×Draw24%
Okzhetpes47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khan Tengri
1.25
Okzhetpes
1.66

Okzhetpes creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 39 away

creates per match

Khan Tengri
1.55
Okzhetpes
2.05

allows per match

Khan Tengri
1.27
Okzhetpes
0.95

finishing

Khan Tengri+0.00on par
Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khan Tengri ↓

Okzhetpes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Khan Tengri or draw
53%
Khan Tengri or Okzhetpes
76%
Draw or Okzhetpes
71%

Winning margin

Khan Tengri wins by 2+
12%
Okzhetpes wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Khan Tengri 1+ goals
71%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
36%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
13%
Okzhetpes 1+ goals
81%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
49%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
38%
Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khan Tengri at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khan Tengri attack 1.55 + Okzhetpes defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Okzhetpes attack 2.05 + Khan Tengri defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khan Tengri scores more
29%
level
24%
Okzhetpes scores more
47%

Okzhetpes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
D. Zhumat
44'
N. Idrisov
45+2'
E. Gorshunov
46'
D. Kalybayev← E. Kuantaev
46'
M. Shakhmetov← A. Rakhimzhanov
53'
E. Gorshunov← Z. Sultaniyazov
60'
P. Kriventsev← A. Aydarbekuly
63'
R. Allakhverdiev← R. Allakhverdiev
63'
B. Shamshi← B. Shamshi
64'
R. Emirov
69'
N. Agzambayev← N. Agzambayev
70'
S. Zhumabekov← Z. Zhaksylykov
70'
D. Zhumat← O. Adil
72'
A. Serikbay
76'
Z. Kozhamberdy← Z. Kozhamberdy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Khan Tengri 0–3 Okzhetpes

Okzhetpes beat Khan Tengri 3-0 in 1. Division on August 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Zhumat (38'), E. Gorshunov (45+2'), A. Serikbay (72').

The match was played at Sportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu in Almaty.