Okzhetpes 2–2 Khan Tengri: Result & Stats | Cup

Okzhetpes

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Khan Tengri

I. Gagaev 90+2'

Z. Zhaksylykov 87'

A. Serikbay 62' (OG)

I. Amirseitov 48'

3/18/2024

Cup · Qualifying Round - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Okzhetpes23%

×Draw22%

Khan Tengri56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OkzhetpesExpected goals in this matchKhan Tengri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.96

Okzhetpes

1.17

Khan Tengri

1.96

Khan Tengri creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.75

2.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Okzhetpes

1.33

Khan Tengri

1.75

allows per match

Okzhetpes

2.17

Khan Tengri

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Khan Tengri →

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw

44%

Okzhetpes or Khan Tengri

78%

Draw or Khan Tengri

77%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+

Khan Tengri wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals

69%

Okzhetpes 2+ goals

33%

Okzhetpes 3+ goals

11%

Khan Tengri 1+ goals

86%

Khan Tengri 2+ goals

58%

Khan Tengri 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)

29%

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 1.33 + Khan Tengri defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Khan Tengri attack 1.75 + Okzhetpes defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Okzhetpes scores more

23%

level

22%

Khan Tengri scores more

56%

Khan Tengri at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Khan Tengri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Elemes← N. Elemes

46'

Z. Porokh← Z. Porokh

46'

N. Izbasarov← N. Izbasarov

48'

I. Amirseitov

54'

P. Kriventsev← M. Zhakipbayev

55'

I. Karavaev

62'

A. SerikbayOwn goal

63'

D. Kalybayev← A. Gaziev

67'

S. Arsamakov← S. Arsamakov

67'

M. Tuliev← N. Mikhailov

69'

Z. Sultaniyazov← I. Gagaev

73'

A. Kusainov← A. Kusainov

79'

Z. Zhaksylykov

86'

N. Elemes

87'

Z. Zhaksylykov

90+2'

I. Gagaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff