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Ohod vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Division 1 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2/20/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Ohod Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ohod26%
×Draw30%
Al-Ahli Jeddah44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
0.85
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.18

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 39% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.18
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

allows per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.53

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
56%
Ohod or Al-Ahli Jeddah
70%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
74%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
9%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
57%
Ohod 2+ goals
21%
Ohod 3+ goals
5%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
69%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
33%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.18 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Ohod defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ohod scores more
26%
level
30%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
44%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Ohod 0–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Ohod 2-0 in Division 1 on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Ohod Club Stadium in Medina.