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Ohod vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
9/14/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 2Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod30%
×Draw25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.24
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.59

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.65

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.41

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
55%
Ohod or Al-Ahli Jeddah
75%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
70%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
12%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
71%
Ohod 2+ goals
35%
Ohod 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
80%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
47%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
40%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ohod scores more
30%
level
25%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
45%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Ohod 2-0 in Pro League on September 14, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.