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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
1/11/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 16King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah70%
×Draw18%
Ohod12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.30
Ohod
0.82

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 180% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.01
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.05
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
88%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Ohod
82%
Draw or Ohod
30%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
47%
Ohod wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
90%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
67%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
40%
Ohod 1+ goals
56%
Ohod 2+ goals
20%
Ohod 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
86%
Ohod (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
70%
level
18%
Ohod scores more
12%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Ohod

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Ohod 5-1 in Pro League on January 11, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.